Final Destination.

Metaphorically speaking, LFC is at something of a crossroads. Win or lose. Champions League or there will be no European football gracing Anfield next year. All or nothing? Not quite

The problem with metaphors is that at some point they can't stretch far enough and fall apart. Failing to go the right way at an actual crossroads doesn't lead to death or anything particularly morbid. It just takes longer to get to your eventual destination.

One road is paved with gold. The lure of Champions League football would be impressive, especially added to the lure of the manager and the momentum we already have. That being said, whatever path we take, we keep on moving. Always.

Describe the consequences of tonight's result to someone who knows nothing about football.

If Liverpool win we get Champions League football.
If Liverpool win we get loads more money.
If Liverpool win potential transfer targets will see us as a more viable option.

Are they looking at you weirdly?

If Liverpool win they will have won a European trophy.

All that needs to be said. Come on Redmen. Let's do this.

Living By The Sword

Brendan Rodgers has a problem. Getting Liverpool Football Club back to the top of English football once more. A task that once felt so near to completion, only for it all to come crashing down around him. It's not a responsibility he must carry with him alone but his shoulders bear its considerable weight this time around more so than in previous years. Relentless - like an impatient toddler - the demand to arrive at this most coveted of destinations continues ever to grow. While our final destination remains the same, every season brings with it a unique starting position. So how do we get to there from here?

There is no definitive route to the top. No method which guarantees success. Within that there is scope to chose your own path. The Premier League is a perpetual motion machine and as such every team has a decision to make. They will all have their own aims and ambitions, as well as an idea of how they're going to achieve them.  Standing still is surefire failure and even if the road taken arrives in disaster quicker, it's a risk worth taking. The quickest route isn't always the most convenient, there may be compromises that have to be made. Risks that have to be taken. Even more so when in our case the reward is the Premier League title.

In a straightforward race to the top we are ill equipped. There are those with greater resources and are much more acclimatised to such a journey. But there must be a way of evening the odds. Not so much cheating the system but rather reprogramming it for our benefit. Finding a short cut in footballing terms isn't about skipping anything.  Quite the opposite in fact.  Bringing together a group of quality players while getting the best out of those on the periphery. Having the literal definition of a team - on and off the pitch - pulling together in the right direction. The work will be hard and the end result overly simplified. Pages of tactics, hours of research, the sum of hours of endless plotting; once it translates onto the pitch undergoes a transformation.

Weeks of training come down to a single moment and within that - dependent on its success – lies the justification for everything else in between. No one off instance should define a player, his manager or the club but it's in those more critical that we find out the most of all involved. The emergency situations are where the Grand Design should reveal itself. When one point simply isn't enough and there's fifteen minutes to find a winner or the opposition simply refuse to lie down. Whether psychologically or in tangible real terms, something simply has to go your way. Talent shines through - be it managerial or on the playing staff - and these instances begin to take on a life of their own. They can very quickly become almost mythological. Beating the opposition before a ball has been kicked, or conversely making a team believe it cannot win regardless of the situation.

A philosophy - and or – an ideal playing style is a blanket term for an accumulation of these moments. It can happen once and be considered a fluke. Any more than a handful and the dots join up to form an image of the manager's own making.

In every day life, plans don't concern themselves with minutiae. They are about one word questions; the who, how and where. Tactics have to encompass much more than that. In addition to identifying all of the above, they must nullify threats that have yet to reveal themselves while not suffocating the personnel involved with so much information that they cannot come up with spontaneous solutions. Do circumstances dictate or does the architect decide to manufacture them for himself? The plan - no matter how meticulous or well detailed - is always something of a charlatan. A confidence trick played on oneself, albeit an often reliable one. The future is never set but it can often be expertly forged within the mind's eye.

Simply having a method is of no great indication of its effectiveness but rather the understanding of the situation within the mind of which it was created. Far more important to any plan of action is the resources at one's disposal. Even the most accomplished of schemers would struggle to amass anything with poor working materials.

Through circumstances partly of his own making, that's where Rodgers found himself last season. It doesn't matter whether there are doubts about his ability to manage or the specific names of those he has chosen to put right what went wrong last year. Now there are definitely weapons to wield.

Hindsight doesn't work in football. Fans and pundits can use it to justify themselves having seen one version of reality play out. Learning from mistakes isn't simply about reversing one decision when a similar situation arises but rather understanding exactly why the decisions that were made at the time didn't turn out the way we'd have liked.

[When faced with a difficult choice, the failure of one option does not automatically grant the other infinite success - especially in football. You can do everything right and still lose]

After what's happened in the last twelve months it's easy to see what went wrong and exactly the point at which our meteoric rise began to fall almost certainly coincided with one enigmatic Uruguayan donning a different coloured kit. Easy but a little too simplistic. Removing Suarez from that team should not - and didn't - result in some of the football we saw at times last season. Here's where that line of thinking gets corrupted. Back then we were told that it was foolish to play football in such a manner. That being so open would get us so far but not all the way. It would all end in disaster. They were right. Only just.

Liverpool in 13-14 were a great side, albeit a flawed one. There aren't many in world football without any. Even those that can consider their imperfections insignificant to their ambition may not win it all. It's not about trying to exactly replicate what once worked so well because it's very possible it may not translate this time around. Teams adapt and learn at a rapid rate and to go back in time would be foolish. In this current climate however, there is one particular aspect that almost certainly needs to be rediscovered.

The top four right now exist within a vacuum. Those outside looking inward with jealous eyes, scrambling for an invite inside yet failing to realise it doesn't work like that. There's no way to stumble into the Champions League places any more.  In principle one of Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea or Manchester City will have to come fourth and to simply finish above them will be enough but if that’s the goal then fifth or sixth become very real possibilities. What once was five or six into four has evolved.  In terms of ambition, it's become four into one and in order to give ourselves a chance of fitting into that group we have to – at least initially – go for that top spot.

Almost from the offset last season, Brendan Rodgers was on the back foot.  Even before the summer had put into effect the changes in players, it seemed as if the noise was of reigning ourselves in.  Putting too much stock in how our defects could ultimately prove to be fatal and ignoring the decline in our armoury.  Football management can be something of a Rubik's cube with artificial intelligence in that regard.  Making one side perfect is hard work and even then, a moment later and it can all be wrong again. 

Settling for a place in the top four was a mistake then, just as aiming for one now would be.  In order to oust those that finished above Liverpool, at the very minimum we must match their ambition.  Certain players have been brought in to do specific roles, the intricacies of which are largely insignificant – from a fan perspective anyway.  What is important is the bottom line of their recruitment.  Storing ammunition.  Hoarding arms.  Failure this time around could be as a result of a number of factors but being tentative should not be one of them.  If we're going to go down, go down swinging.

With this team and with these options, our best chance is to be bold.  Ignore perception.  Defy logic.  Safety first is anything but.  It isn't perfect, but what is?  Whatever plan of action is put into place, do it with a clear mind. We need to define exactly who Liverpool Football Club are going to be and why that particular persona will help us achieve our goals. It might not work but it is our most likely path toward something approaching success. Live by the sword, die by the sword. Die trying.

Playing Ludo: A Meeting Of Miracles

What makes sport such compelling drama is the idea that at any given time anything can happen. True though that may be, within those parameters there's enough which we can rule out. In actuality, despite the chance for something really peculiar to occur most of the time what we're left with is variations of the same thing. Which is why when it does, it's magnificent.

Moments are special because of three things. The first being most important which is the sheer levity of what's at stake. Even a miskick can become legendary depending on what's at stake. Next come the circumstances. What struggles did a team or player have to come through in order to ultimately triumph; the more dire the situation, the greater that glory. Lastly come the idiosyncrasies. Those layers of footballing irony that always seem to add insult to injury.

Razgrad. Unlikely to be immediately found on a map, even if the search was limited solely to Bulgaria. It was here that the eyes of the footballing world converged late last night as something truly spectacular began to unfold. Ludogorets have made waves in Bulgaria and have gone on to win the last three domestic titles. Last year they had moderate success in the Europa League, dropping only two points in the group stage before knocking out Lazio and then eventually losing to Valencia. They have acquired a taste for continental success and now they're dining at the top table.

Wednesday 9^th December 2009. The last time Liverpool took part in a Champions League game. A club plagued by instability from top to bottom and a dark notion that it would be a lot longer to ever get back. That nightmare is now over.  It will end as the operatic chords of that theme music that we've all longed to hear herald them onto the field.. In getting back there we are reminded of how special this competition is – the 2005 final holds a special place in the heart of everyone – and a much greater appreciation for the taking part.

Their opponents were Steaua Bucharest, who must even now not quite know what happened. Having won the first leg by a goal to nil, a fairly uneventful ninety minutes looked like it would be enough to see them safely through. A last minute goal from Wanderson put the game into extra time. In some games, an equaliser in such dramatic fashion would grab all the headlines. Not this one.

It wouldn't be until the last minute of extra time when the game would completely turn on it's head. With the penalty shoot out looking all but a certainty, suddenly the ball broke to Bucharest's Fernando Varela who found himself in on goal. In a heartbeat he was confronted by both a struggling defender and onrushing goalkeeper, both absolutely desperate for the Cape Verdean striker not to end the game there and then.

Stoyanov in goal it was who eventually felled Varela, only to then realize what the consequences were. A red card was produced and because Ludogorets had made all three substitutions there was no chance of bringing on anyone to replace him. One of the ten remaining outfield players was going to have to take his gloves. Cosmin Moti was the man who stepped up. A Romanian, signed from Steaua's most fierce rivals Dinamo Bucharest.

Back in Bulgaria, the last few moments were a blur. Steaua tried to snatch the game. A free kick was put over for a corner, which itself was punched clear. The final whistle quickly followed. The psychology of a penalty shoot out is such that nothing is ever expected of the goalkeeper and this applied to Moti a thousand times over. If he got his hands to any of them, it would be more than enough of an effort.

If there was one thing that was necessary, it was for his team mates to play their part. No amount of heroics in between the posts could save Ludogrets if they themselves didn't convert. To add even further suspense to a game that needed no more, Wanderson who had done so well to put the game into extra time saw his tame penalty saved by Arlauskis in the Steaua goal. Moti made immediate amends for this miss by denying the very next spot kick.

At this point, there was only one way this story was going to end. Even if it doesn't exist, the idea of fate plays with players minds. It should have been easier for Steaua to score but it never felt like that. Destiny will make someone better than they ever thought possible or shrink their ability to the point where it doesn't even matter. Jerzy Dudek and Shevchenko had one such moment almost a decade ago now.

After five, the teams were still locked. Now we were at the point where one miss and it could all be over. A sixty penalty either way could not separate them. Fabio Espinho scored for Ludo and the eyes of the footballing world watched as Cornel Rapa strode up to face Moti who dived hard to his right and caught it. Never again will a outfield player draw so many plaudits for catching a football.

Tonight's meeting at Anfield represents a point in time for both teams. A clash of two sides who are simply relishing the prospect of facing each other. For Liverpool it is a return to the stage where they feel most at home. Where the things transpire mean all that much more. Our Bulgarian opponents may be new to this stage but for it is a joy and a privilege to share this spotlight with them. Though the two events have no bearing over one another, what happened to Ludogorets was very similar to that which transpired at the Attaturk. To host them is like kharmic kinship. We take to the field tonight, filled with pride and buoyed by the prospect of a brighter future knowing full well that as far as Liverpool are concerned, in the European Cup anything is possible.

Reverse Engineering The Title

With disappointment comes introspection. It's usually preceded by an interminable amount of anger and sadness but eventually the trail will lead inward. Sometimes it's unwarranted. Even after having exhausted every avenue and strained every sinew, thoughts turn inevitably to what could have been.

Hindsight can sometimes be nothing more than arrogance dressed in more appropriate clothes. Someone's own ego in formal wear. There are times when minor adjustments lead to obvious conclusions but when it comes to the unforeseen circumstances of a complex problem, the after the fact solution takes everything for granted.

A lot can happen in ninety minutes. Less so if you're watching the MLS. Every league game comes with a dissection and latterly entire seasons are given a thorough inspection. Within that scrutiny emerges a narrative that will then be pulled apart. Highs and lows are categorised into negatives and positives and while it's important to learn from the past in order to shape the future.

It happens frequently. Usually it hinges on refereeing decisions be they legitimate call or poor decision. On Tuesday night against Manchester United, Milton Keynes had a very good penalty shout turned down when the game was still in the balance. Had they gone on to lose that game it would no doubt have been dubbed the turning point, even though there was no guarantee of any spot kick being scored. Whenever a corner is given erroneously and subsequently scored, fingers often point toward the official rather than the defending. Again, the outcome determines the script from which we all work off.

The moment that a game – or even a season – potentially hinges isn't all-encompassing. It only exists at all because of that which preceded it and is only important because of what followed. To focus on it alone is to shut one eye. It will allow for closer inspection but ultimately prohibit any real depth. Fixating on the failure itself ignores everything that led up to getting close to success in the first place. Becoming infatuated with a winning goal may overlook the fact that it was fortunate. Without the scope for both, there will be no way to get anywhere near whatever ambitions that may be set.

Had Steven Gerrard not slipped, Liverpool would have been crowned Premier League champions last season. A fair assumption, if not a common consensus. It's not the act itself that needed changing but rather the response to it. Learning from the past is just that. Whatever repairs that are needed must take place in the present. Improvement cannot be made retroactively, it must come in the hereafter. Rodgers isn't coaching his players not to make mistakes but to be good enough to correct them.

We forget sometimes that the role of an opponent is to force defeat as much as it is to win. In order for a forward to do his job well, someone at the other end is very likely to be in the wrong. As much as anyone would like to eliminate deficiency completely, in sport it is an inevitability. Talent is not an equivalency and as such there will be an imbalance. Simply making those bad times vanish doesn't work.

When it's not singular instances that get scrubbed, results do. Remove all context completely and just change history altogether. “If only”. The ultimate in wishful thinking. Swapping two (very specific) scorelines around gives Arsenal the title last year, it's that easy. Only it isn't. One outcome affects the next and you very quickly enter a world of pure speculation. Had Sunderland beaten Manchester City, do they then go on to beat Chelsea that weekend? That one week, those two fixtures alone, a whole table thrown into chaos.

Southampton and Aston Villa at Anfield. Hull and West Brom away from home. Those the games in which Liverpool failed to win which they would have been favourites for. Visits to St. James Park and The Liberty Stadium could also have yielded more. Is it possible that the title could have been lost in October? In terms of pure mathematics, yes. In actual terms, no. Setback in those early games may have given Rodgers the catalyst to things on the training ground which led to the victories that were to come.

While it ultimately leads to nowhere, the theory is sound. More points gained on any season represents some improvement and in this case it would at the very least grant the Reds a shot at the title. In the tentative start already made, the opening day victory over Southampton already allows for a three point advantage over 2013-14. Getting to a greater total than last year is about being able to maintain the standard which saw so many victories, rather than micro managing those instances where it wasn't possible.

Ten from the first fifteen available. It's a more than creditable way to begin the Premier League toil. Seven from the next three is more than feasible and could also do more in terms of bettering past results when Aston Villa come to Anfield. In amassing enough points to be successful over the course of the next nine months some will always slip through our fingers. When that happens we just have to collect some from elsewhere.

That which will define this year is still far in the distance. The game to be dissected from every angle won't be played for some time. Any kind of real endeavour must be taken as a whole, which is why they say that the journey is more important than the destination. This trip has barely even started and already there's been a bump in the road. Spurs loom large on Sunday, waiting to make our passage even more difficult. We can't pick and choose what happens in a season any more than sections of a path can be skipped. Obstacles may seem immovable and we cannot close our eyes and ignore them. They have to be gotten through or around. Brendan Rodgers needs to find a way.

Begins. Falls. Rises.

Familiarity can sometimes be a trick of the mind. Know something for long enough and it's capacity to surprise seems to disappear while never vanishing completely. The capacity to change for the better is always there and while the challenge to simply maintain becomes ever greater, let the rest of them be duped into underestimating again.

In emerging from nowhere they became larger than life. Expectations were exceeded in a way that went above what most would have ever dreamt of. No longer was the idea of a nineteenth title consigned to the shadows. Challenging for the title wasn't new for this team but it was new for this team. This is all part of a story that's been told over and over. An old story for a new generation.

So how do you reignite the fire for a conflict that everyone seems to known inside and out? For most it won't take much. Off the field there has already been a lot of work in trying to breathe new life into that which we think we already know while maintaining that which worked so well. With the right attention to detail, a vision can be made reality. Only then can you take the kind of heritage that comes with LFC and make it your own.

Some interpretations don't work at all. When you have an entity that is so ingrained into popular culture that it becomes very clearly defined – by those who like it and those who don't – then there are parameters to work within. Even in those circumstances it's possible to be unique while maintaining that which people know. In certain hands however, these marks can be missed so much so that the end result then becomes like a parody of that which it once stood for. Roy Hodgson did for Liverpool what Batman and Robin did for cinema. In this instance, Brendan Rodgers has a little more of the Christopher Nolan about him.

Legacies are defined by what's left behind, long after the aspects that established it are gone. If everything crumbles to dust the moment that it's architect is gone, then the foundations weren't quite strong enough in the first place. The truly great can stand the test of time. At Anfield, those foundations have been rocked to the core over the last decade. At last there appears to be something with which we can build greatness upon.

Tomorrow will see the start of a new chapter. The third part of Brendan Rodgers' tenure at the helm. Year one gave us an introduction to this new incarnation, then came the much lauded sequel. Does the closing chapter of this trilogy end with Steven Gerrard lifting the Premier League trophy? We'll are thirty eight games and another emotional roller-coaster ride away from finding out.

Early previews suggest that hope is lost. More will have to be found. The stakes are higher now. There's a storm coming. Isn't that always the way? A resurgent Manchester United and a buoyant Arsenal; coupled with Chelsea and Manchester City whom Liverpool fought so hard last year and suddenly the rogues gallery appears very full.

Also, this time the battle will be as much internal as it is external. History doesn't get rewritten all that often. Every miskick and every dropped point will summon forth his name. Speak of the devil and he shall appear. He was once was the bane of Premier League defenders up and down the country; this time he will be Liverpool's reckoning.

For those on the outside looking in, Luis Suarez's departure will cast a great shadow over the club. He was born in the darkness after all, we merely adopted him. With that also comes the idea that last year was a fluke. Steven Gerrard and Brendan Rodgers won't be wallowing in a pit of despair, looking on as all their hard work is destroyed. There are bigger challenges that inevitably await, that must be met head on.

“Why do we fall?” asks Michael Caine's Alfred, in a voice just the right side of parody. “So that we can learn to pick ourselves up” comes the self supplied answer. It's a theme that echoes not just on the screen but as we strive to come up against whatever problems there are in our daily lives. A nice sentiment definitely - but also massively incorrect.

Ultimately there has to be a reason behind that fall in the first place. Simply continuing to stand isn't enough. Avoiding mistakes is as advantageous as learning from them. As far as Liverpool are concerned, such sentiments serve a dual purpose. Standing up in the face of adversity is more than honorable enough but this time around it's more about not letting anyone push them to the ground in the first place.

Whatever story there is left to tell and whatever ending we have yet to arrive at, everything looks much different now than when it started. In football it's often said that it's the hope that kills you. On the screen it was said that “there can be no true despair without hope”. That might be the way it felt in the immediate aftermath of the Chelsea and Crystal Palace games, but certainly not what those on Matthew Street would have said at 2am after the Newcastle game.

Faith can be poisonous when it is blind and unwarranted. But placed in the right hands and it will be rewarded. This team has just given us a season that even without a defining piece of silverware is unlikely to fade into the memory. Continuing in the same manor and trophies will not be far behind. There were not only incredible victories but the sheer scale and method of them, the likes of which we'll be looking forward to seeing again this year.

Maybe we've seen it all. Maybe we just think we have. Maybe the best is yet to come. Maybe they've given us everything. Well, not everything. Not yet.

Devil In The Details: Stop Telling Us What We Already Know

Little things make a big difference. For instance if you were to put the word modern in front of both football and art, it conjures up very specific imagery. Flocks of people gathered into overbearing, soulless hives; all looking to fill a void. Not all galleries are bad though.

Really honing a craft takes many hours of painstaking effort. Whether it be on the canvass or on the training ground, attention to detail is key. Everything that works well is there for a reason, so retroactively speaking it makes sense to assume that what's not there is just as important. Because the line between success and failure in sport is so incredibly small it can appear as though what would be needed to sway the balance is blindingly obvious.

From the outside looking in, even those of us that are well versed in footballing theory are only capable of reading any given scenario in a limited number of ways. Those with hands on experience and the physical ability to effect change get the full picture and there is no need for interpretation. Then again, the idea that someone watching from the stands can see something the manager can't isn't exactly a new one.

With more eyes on more of the game than ever before, with that comes more critics. Simply knowing – about any given subject – isn't enough for some people. Their insight has to be commended or opinions have to be validated. It's not enough to be right any more, it has to be illustrated and reiterated on a regular basis. Nothing happens on the football field with a hundred percent certainty.

There is very little that goes untracked these days. Mention a player and immediately there is a digital compendium available regarding every conceivable aspect. Judgements are made by both those on and off the pitch, after which only one group makes decisions. This process is too much for some, who will try and prove all sorts of things before the ink is dry on his contract. The reasons why we like or dislike a player don't have to be rational but when it comes to Liverpool, the very least they should be given is courtesy and respect. No-one ever knows for certain prior to a ball being kicked and regardless of any labels they may have, there won't be a consensus on anyone that isn't either lazy or too obvious.

The difference between players at the highest level are so small that when true quality shines through, that gap is large enough so that it doesn't need pointing out. Also, because of the minutiae involved in a single game, let alone a whole season; failure does not instantly validate any pre conceived notions. Look at the difference in Luis Suarez playing alongside Andy Carroll as opposed to Daniel Sturridge. In both scenarios the ability of everyone involved doesn't alter but they are regularly used to substantiate all sorts of claims. In the case of the former, it was once argued that Suarez would never be a prolific goalscorer at the top level.

Only over an elongated period of time – when a negative has been shown to be truly consistent – does the point have any real weight behind it. The problem now is that these valid arguments are being taken and manipulated into something else. Driven home to the point where conformation bias comes into play and all objectivity is lost. Glen Johnson is the easiest current example to use. For the purposes of this, it's only worth taking into account the time since Brendan Rodgers took over.

The statsheet reads like a horror story. One league goal and six assists in sixty five out of seventy two possible games. It would be cynical and easy to suggest that if he were playing for another club, under no circumstances would he be wanted here. That's understandable but Rodgers clearly does; for now at least.

Is it because of the sheer weight of information that someone will make the right choices or does it matter what is then done with that data? Coaches can know the game of football like the back of their hand but if they don't know how to effectively communicate these ideas then they are effectively sterile.

While in Johnson's case there may be enough evidence to suggest immediate exile from Anfield, whatever can be seen Rodgers is unlikely blind to it. Because of his history with the player and a lack of viable alternatives both in house and elsewhere, in the immediate future he will be a part of this team. Spending the following twelve months – after which he is likely to leave anyway – pointing out his flaws would be as valuable as alerting everyone to the colour of his shorts.

This also applies in reverse. Making a stand against popular opinion because it's widely regarded is very peculiar but not uncommon. A handful of good games and there will be calls of a “return to form” as well as other people reaching out, cherry picking numbers and passages of play that make it appear as though Liverpool suddenly have Phillip Lahm, Javier Zanetti and Lillian Thuram all rolled into one. Warts and all, he will always be Glen Johnson. If the manager doesn't know what he does or doesn't bring by now, this is a completely different conversation.

With the new season rapidly approaching, lines already being drawn. Dots being connected. Lovren, Sakho and Skrtel will each be both hero and villain every week. Every moment Rickie Lambert makes – from the dressing room onward – will be charted. It's not that these things are being said blindly but the idea that they're the only one noticing is. So many of us standing in front of a picture that Brendan Rodgers had made look so good last year, all arguing about subtext and conjecture. If we stop arguing, we may be able to appreciate the art of it all once again.

Points Make Prizes: Tackling The Anfield Wrap's 84 Point Question

Foresight tends to be as punctual as it is inaccurate. If something is to be proven right, chances are it will be too late. Seeing into the future is nigh on impossible and yet it's attempted with great regularity. The satisfaction that comes with knowing something – or at least perceiving to – in advance is very much part of the allure that comes with gambling and subsequently being rewarded for it. It doesn't matter whether they are long shots or dead certs, people can't get enough of being right.

To speak hypothetically about events that haven't occurred yet, is to flirt with fantasy. Even the most grounded and rational of responses bear only a passing semblance to reality for there are always dictating circumstances and unforeseen intangibles. These kind of scenarios are asked more because of their insight to a person's thinking as opposed to the accuracy or legitimacy of their answer.

The question – offered up by Neil Atkinson of The Anfield Wrap - that has been laid before everyone over the summer has been whether or not to duplicate last seasons net result. Nothing else, just a guaranteed eighty four points. The gamble being that it would probably guarantee Champions League football for the following campaign but potentially forfeit a title challenge in favour of stability. But before you place any bets, lets have a look at the odds.

First of all lets look at the minimum requirements. To finish in the top four next season and keep the wheels turning, over the last five seasons you would need an average of 71.8 (we'll call it 72 and from here on in, any decimal number will be rounded up). This is well below the established threshold and further proof that taking it keeps Liverpool in the Champions League for next season.

The established method of getting there was hitting the benchmark of two points per game. Win your home games, draw the aways; it was like a mantra. Since there have been quadruple places available, it would have done the job every single time until last season (Liverpool did hit this mark exactly in 06/07 so there may be an issue on goal difference but the point still stands). Over the last few years the Premier League has changed dramatically. The places that were on offer in Europe's elite competition used to be enough. Not any more.

Sky's baptised “Big four” were a glass ceiling for so long. There was very little chance of any side having the quality to break into that group and they had to be content with being better than most but nowhere near good enough. Liverpool have since fallen and risen at the same time as Manchester City's financially backed ascension. Even without looking at a resurgent United there's still Everton and Tottenham who can at least believe that they can crack into that category now. The belief is there and especially after what we've all collectively witnessed it cannot be ignored. Whatever the legitimacy of the claim, six into four doesn't work.

A decade ago the gap between third and fifth was nineteen points. It was the same the following campaign and seventeen after that. There was a definite chasm there. Two years ago Tottenham recorded their best ever Premier League haul and it wasn't good enough. Last season was the first in five in which third was double figures above fifth and even then Everton's tally was above the aforementioned average needed to qualify. It's become a whole lot harder simply to miss out entirely.

Simultaneously the quality at the front of the league has evened out a little or that the rest of it has become so bad that simply by dispatching of it consistently it's possible to bridge a gap in quality. Liverpool have done exactly that over the last twelve months and in spite of everything else, there's no reason for it to change. As such, while it's gotten harder to break into the top tier in English football; to win it has actually become easier.

Given that Brendan Rodgers' team earned enough last season to be runner up six out of the last ten, it's safe to say that any kind of repeat would be enough to put Liverpool in contention. From needing to accrue over ninety, the last five times the trophy has been lifted have all been under that mark. Over that space of time, eighty six would be enough and coincidentally that's exactly the number that was required by Manchester City. Quite simply, if there is any improvement at all, it could very well do the trick.

Even with all the prior knowledge in the world, football is never as easy as it seems on paper. A figment of my imagination playing out an alternate reality doesn't behave in quite the same way the real thing does, despite the amount of times they've been seen before. They look and feel very familiar but when the smallest detail can make the biggest difference, any kind of forecast disappears into the wind.

When the margin is so small between having the kind of success we've all waited so long for in winning the league and what would represent a massive backward step in finishing fifth or below, it's very easy to understand taking certain things for granted. Guarantees of anything – let alone a number of points – are very hard to come by in football.

Whether playing it safe or taking a chance at further glory, it has to be said that getting to the same mark again in the first place would be an achievement. Unshakable proof to the few doubters that remain that this team isn't just a flash in the pan. There are doubts that without Suarez, simply repeating isn't possible. With him in our ranks it wouldn't have been that straightforward. Easier perhaps, but who knows. When it comes to being underestimated, this team loves defying those kind of predictions.