Playing Ludo: A Meeting Of Miracles

What makes sport such compelling drama is the idea that at any given time anything can happen. True though that may be, within those parameters there's enough which we can rule out. In actuality, despite the chance for something really peculiar to occur most of the time what we're left with is variations of the same thing. Which is why when it does, it's magnificent.

Moments are special because of three things. The first being most important which is the sheer levity of what's at stake. Even a miskick can become legendary depending on what's at stake. Next come the circumstances. What struggles did a team or player have to come through in order to ultimately triumph; the more dire the situation, the greater that glory. Lastly come the idiosyncrasies. Those layers of footballing irony that always seem to add insult to injury.

Razgrad. Unlikely to be immediately found on a map, even if the search was limited solely to Bulgaria. It was here that the eyes of the footballing world converged late last night as something truly spectacular began to unfold. Ludogorets have made waves in Bulgaria and have gone on to win the last three domestic titles. Last year they had moderate success in the Europa League, dropping only two points in the group stage before knocking out Lazio and then eventually losing to Valencia. They have acquired a taste for continental success and now they're dining at the top table.

Wednesday 9^th December 2009. The last time Liverpool took part in a Champions League game. A club plagued by instability from top to bottom and a dark notion that it would be a lot longer to ever get back. That nightmare is now over.  It will end as the operatic chords of that theme music that we've all longed to hear herald them onto the field.. In getting back there we are reminded of how special this competition is – the 2005 final holds a special place in the heart of everyone – and a much greater appreciation for the taking part.

Their opponents were Steaua Bucharest, who must even now not quite know what happened. Having won the first leg by a goal to nil, a fairly uneventful ninety minutes looked like it would be enough to see them safely through. A last minute goal from Wanderson put the game into extra time. In some games, an equaliser in such dramatic fashion would grab all the headlines. Not this one.

It wouldn't be until the last minute of extra time when the game would completely turn on it's head. With the penalty shoot out looking all but a certainty, suddenly the ball broke to Bucharest's Fernando Varela who found himself in on goal. In a heartbeat he was confronted by both a struggling defender and onrushing goalkeeper, both absolutely desperate for the Cape Verdean striker not to end the game there and then.

Stoyanov in goal it was who eventually felled Varela, only to then realize what the consequences were. A red card was produced and because Ludogorets had made all three substitutions there was no chance of bringing on anyone to replace him. One of the ten remaining outfield players was going to have to take his gloves. Cosmin Moti was the man who stepped up. A Romanian, signed from Steaua's most fierce rivals Dinamo Bucharest.

Back in Bulgaria, the last few moments were a blur. Steaua tried to snatch the game. A free kick was put over for a corner, which itself was punched clear. The final whistle quickly followed. The psychology of a penalty shoot out is such that nothing is ever expected of the goalkeeper and this applied to Moti a thousand times over. If he got his hands to any of them, it would be more than enough of an effort.

If there was one thing that was necessary, it was for his team mates to play their part. No amount of heroics in between the posts could save Ludogrets if they themselves didn't convert. To add even further suspense to a game that needed no more, Wanderson who had done so well to put the game into extra time saw his tame penalty saved by Arlauskis in the Steaua goal. Moti made immediate amends for this miss by denying the very next spot kick.

At this point, there was only one way this story was going to end. Even if it doesn't exist, the idea of fate plays with players minds. It should have been easier for Steaua to score but it never felt like that. Destiny will make someone better than they ever thought possible or shrink their ability to the point where it doesn't even matter. Jerzy Dudek and Shevchenko had one such moment almost a decade ago now.

After five, the teams were still locked. Now we were at the point where one miss and it could all be over. A sixty penalty either way could not separate them. Fabio Espinho scored for Ludo and the eyes of the footballing world watched as Cornel Rapa strode up to face Moti who dived hard to his right and caught it. Never again will a outfield player draw so many plaudits for catching a football.

Tonight's meeting at Anfield represents a point in time for both teams. A clash of two sides who are simply relishing the prospect of facing each other. For Liverpool it is a return to the stage where they feel most at home. Where the things transpire mean all that much more. Our Bulgarian opponents may be new to this stage but for it is a joy and a privilege to share this spotlight with them. Though the two events have no bearing over one another, what happened to Ludogorets was very similar to that which transpired at the Attaturk. To host them is like kharmic kinship. We take to the field tonight, filled with pride and buoyed by the prospect of a brighter future knowing full well that as far as Liverpool are concerned, in the European Cup anything is possible.

Points Make Prizes: Tackling The Anfield Wrap's 84 Point Question

Foresight tends to be as punctual as it is inaccurate. If something is to be proven right, chances are it will be too late. Seeing into the future is nigh on impossible and yet it's attempted with great regularity. The satisfaction that comes with knowing something – or at least perceiving to – in advance is very much part of the allure that comes with gambling and subsequently being rewarded for it. It doesn't matter whether they are long shots or dead certs, people can't get enough of being right.

To speak hypothetically about events that haven't occurred yet, is to flirt with fantasy. Even the most grounded and rational of responses bear only a passing semblance to reality for there are always dictating circumstances and unforeseen intangibles. These kind of scenarios are asked more because of their insight to a person's thinking as opposed to the accuracy or legitimacy of their answer.

The question – offered up by Neil Atkinson of The Anfield Wrap - that has been laid before everyone over the summer has been whether or not to duplicate last seasons net result. Nothing else, just a guaranteed eighty four points. The gamble being that it would probably guarantee Champions League football for the following campaign but potentially forfeit a title challenge in favour of stability. But before you place any bets, lets have a look at the odds.

First of all lets look at the minimum requirements. To finish in the top four next season and keep the wheels turning, over the last five seasons you would need an average of 71.8 (we'll call it 72 and from here on in, any decimal number will be rounded up). This is well below the established threshold and further proof that taking it keeps Liverpool in the Champions League for next season.

The established method of getting there was hitting the benchmark of two points per game. Win your home games, draw the aways; it was like a mantra. Since there have been quadruple places available, it would have done the job every single time until last season (Liverpool did hit this mark exactly in 06/07 so there may be an issue on goal difference but the point still stands). Over the last few years the Premier League has changed dramatically. The places that were on offer in Europe's elite competition used to be enough. Not any more.

Sky's baptised “Big four” were a glass ceiling for so long. There was very little chance of any side having the quality to break into that group and they had to be content with being better than most but nowhere near good enough. Liverpool have since fallen and risen at the same time as Manchester City's financially backed ascension. Even without looking at a resurgent United there's still Everton and Tottenham who can at least believe that they can crack into that category now. The belief is there and especially after what we've all collectively witnessed it cannot be ignored. Whatever the legitimacy of the claim, six into four doesn't work.

A decade ago the gap between third and fifth was nineteen points. It was the same the following campaign and seventeen after that. There was a definite chasm there. Two years ago Tottenham recorded their best ever Premier League haul and it wasn't good enough. Last season was the first in five in which third was double figures above fifth and even then Everton's tally was above the aforementioned average needed to qualify. It's become a whole lot harder simply to miss out entirely.

Simultaneously the quality at the front of the league has evened out a little or that the rest of it has become so bad that simply by dispatching of it consistently it's possible to bridge a gap in quality. Liverpool have done exactly that over the last twelve months and in spite of everything else, there's no reason for it to change. As such, while it's gotten harder to break into the top tier in English football; to win it has actually become easier.

Given that Brendan Rodgers' team earned enough last season to be runner up six out of the last ten, it's safe to say that any kind of repeat would be enough to put Liverpool in contention. From needing to accrue over ninety, the last five times the trophy has been lifted have all been under that mark. Over that space of time, eighty six would be enough and coincidentally that's exactly the number that was required by Manchester City. Quite simply, if there is any improvement at all, it could very well do the trick.

Even with all the prior knowledge in the world, football is never as easy as it seems on paper. A figment of my imagination playing out an alternate reality doesn't behave in quite the same way the real thing does, despite the amount of times they've been seen before. They look and feel very familiar but when the smallest detail can make the biggest difference, any kind of forecast disappears into the wind.

When the margin is so small between having the kind of success we've all waited so long for in winning the league and what would represent a massive backward step in finishing fifth or below, it's very easy to understand taking certain things for granted. Guarantees of anything – let alone a number of points – are very hard to come by in football.

Whether playing it safe or taking a chance at further glory, it has to be said that getting to the same mark again in the first place would be an achievement. Unshakable proof to the few doubters that remain that this team isn't just a flash in the pan. There are doubts that without Suarez, simply repeating isn't possible. With him in our ranks it wouldn't have been that straightforward. Easier perhaps, but who knows. When it comes to being underestimated, this team loves defying those kind of predictions.  

Playing By The Numbers

An entity can moves either forward or backward but the composite sum of its parts may move in many different ways, all in an attempt to create some momentum. Because standing still is the fast track to failure actions are taken in any direction to prevent inertia. Whether or not those individual pieces are broken or not capable of doing that job that is required of them can only be seen over time.

Progress is defined by the distance one travels between their starting point and an ultimate goal. For Liverpool, the intermediate goal is a swift return to Champions League football and using the money that brings with it to attract the right players to the club that would allow it to challenge for the title. Simply engaging in a round robin contest for fourth place is not enough. In regard to that aim, the idea of finishing in the top four is too narrow-minded a view and does not address any of the problems that would inhibit Brendan Rodgers and his team move on to the next level should they find themselves in a position to qualify for the Champions League at some point. There must be a better way to measure how far the team has yet to go.

The table never lies, so says the cliché First and foremost, the notion of fourth place as a barometer gets thrown out of the window immediately, for there have been many different points tallies that would get you to that financially sacred hallmark. In 2003-04, Gerard Houllier’s last season in charge of Liverpool and one that would eventually set them up on the road to Istanbul with a top four finish and entry to the qualifiers, 57 points was the mark (Liverpool finishing on 60, Everton on 56). To put some perspective on how much things have changed since then, last year Liverpool in a unanimously condemned campaign amassed 52. Rather unsurprisingly, fourth become a lot harder to reach.

Setting a benchmark in terms of a points tally seems so simplistic it veers on condescension. Before a team sets out to finish first or seventeenth, they must first assess how many points are required and then set about amassing them in the best way possible. The only difference between those challenging higher up the table than those scrapping for survival will be the room for error within those targets. In recent history there has been a leveling out of the quality within the top division. Those teams that possess talented players are more evenly spread than they were some five or six years ago. This is not a reflection on the quality, more so an indication of the task teams are faced with in increasingly difficult financial climate.

City and Chelsea are exempt from this while sides like Spurs and Everton have caught up in addition to the decline over time of Arsenal and Liverpool. With that being said there’s a number of teams vying for what appears to be one space at the head of the table in regard to English football. The gap between what’s required for a third and fifth place finish appears to be getting smaller all the time. It’s gone from twenty points at the end of 08-09 to just five. Both then and now the line appears to be around the seventy point mark. Even that – which might not be enough – would still require an additional 29 points from the remaining sixteen games, a consistency which has evaded Liverpool for some time. So is there nothing left to aim for? Not quite.

Undertaking a journey like this, it’s very easy to see the long road ahead and feel overwhelmed by the amount of work still left to do. There are some out there unsure as to whether all this change has been for the better. People get angry – sometimes understandably so – about mistakes that have been made, both now and in the past. In a sport so unpredictable as this however, the human factor cannot be ignored and it’s near impossible to go through 38 games and be completely error free. Once they’re done, there is no erasing them from history and the easiest thing to do is to put them right as soon as possible. In terms of the disastrous league season, Brendan Rodgers is doing just that.

Of the 22 games Liverpool have played last year, they have gained points overall on the equivalent fixture. It becomes very difficult when factoring in the three relegated sides and who to assign them to so in this case every possible scenario has been explored with each of Reading, Southampton and West Ham playing the part of Wolves, Bolton and Blackburn. So far the results vary but all off them see more points accrued, with a maximum return of being seven points better off.

The potential problem with looking back this way is that because of how bad things were in the league Rodgers may be being given too low a bar to overcome. All that depends on how high he goes above it, which is something to be judged in the summer. If the trend of turning the disappointing defeats into wins (Fulham & Wigan at Anfield, QPR away) continues then it won’t be by a few points that the target is beaten and it will be much closer to the grander prize of the aforementioned seventy point mark which could earn Liverpool a top four place. Even if the team came fifth or sixth with a total like this, it would represent a massive turnaround. Something that will be heavily impacted one way or another by what happens in the coming weeks.

Having to go to Old Trafford as well as the Emirates and the Etihad in quick succession was never going to easy. The idea of picking points up at these places is a difficult one, let alone when all three come in quick succession Following the defeat to Manchester United on Sunday, a huge emphasis will be placed on the visit of Norwich to Anfield this Saturday. It’s importance is not just on getting back on track in the face of a difficult run of games but also it’s another chance to pick up more points on last, even more so when doubled with the fact that anything less than a win at Arsenal the following week represents a loss.

Whatever happens in the games against Norwich, Arsenal and Manchester City – it is the following chapter that will come to define Brendan Rodgers’ first year in charge of Liverpool. Three home games with a trip to Wigan sandwiched in between; West Brom, Swansea and Tottenham. These four games put together accrued an abysmal total of three points in the previous season, meaning that a solitary victory in any of those games will match it. Only one team of the twenty in the Premier League matters right now and those above it can do what they want, so long as Brendan Rodgers and his men continue to pick up points wherever they can. For now Liverpool can ignore the table and concentrate on winning. Maybe then at the end of the campaign it will make for happy reading.