Football By Numbers: Why Stats Are No Fun.

On their very brightest day, facts and figures are encouraging. Nobody truly gets excited and punches the air in delight after discovering a particularly pleasing conversion rate, the reaction you're more likely to come across is one of mild appeasement. The emotional equivalent of being at a party with barely anyone you know only to discover an old acquaintance. Life isn't suddenly inexplicably perfect but it's better than it was a moment ago.

That's not to say that I'm some kind of Hodgeasaurus who doesn't believe that stats have any relevance, far from it. What can be gleamed from them is useful but no conversion rate discussion captures the excitement of Daniel Sturridge when he's through on goal. The problem is that by and large, numbers are cold and unfeeling. Mourinho-esque in their rigidity. They're a slap to the face of ambiguity, with the ability to instruct and inform but very little else.

Football is a deluge of numbers. Because of their importance, they're forever in the top left corner of the minds eye. After a period of very clearly defined seconds and minutes, all that matters is for one side of a hyphen to be greater than the other. Those on the pitch - the people we put all our faith and hope in – once they cross that line all at once lose their identity and assume that of something greater. There was a time – feels like an eternity now – when Fernando Torres' name was sung with pride. Anfield would bounce along in honour of Liverpool's number nine and while it may seem that it may now forever be the height of his fame, there was no real magic in that fabric.

That shirt has a lineage which makes it coveted, so much so that it's current occupant spoke of his pride in adorning it for the first time on Saturday against Preston. Having been associated with players of the calibre of Rush, Fowler and Heighway mean that there is expectation. Whether or not Rickie Lambert will live up to that at Liverpool is still up for grabs. One thing is for sure. He's much more worthy of such a label than El Hadji Diouf ever was. Iago Aspas' decision to take that shirt last year looked brave and endeared him somewhat but ultimately only ever added a pressure his ability wasn't able to cope with. I doubt he'd make that same choice twice.

It goes even further than that. People generate their favourite figure by any number of frivolous means. Sometimes they're even capable of wielding some kind of magic. I'm not sure quite how a symbol used to represent quantity was somehow conferred these powers but thirteen in particular has a reputation. For better or worse, our strive for individuality leads to this. Fondness can be found because of any remote connection. The reason that Liverpool have a relationship with the number five is not because of our collective worship of terrible boy bands from the nineties. Similarly United love 1999 because they're all massive Prince fans. Obviously.

I've been told that they never lie, but Shakira's hips tell me they're not telling the whole truth. A last minute winner numerically speaking is the same as any other goal. It's simply one more to the tally. There's no way what happened in the dying moments at Craven Cottage in February can be described as trivially as that. Three points may be all that were awarded that day, same as any other victory. The manner in which they were obtained and the momentum that followed will never be represented.

Brendan Rodgers and his team have over the last twelve months kept the scoreboard ticking impressively. Over a hundred goals. Eighty four points. In the end however, it didn't quite add up. Looking at the table at the end of the season made for joyless reading, if you focus solely on the numbers. What'll raise a smile in years to come will not be sums and tallys, but headers and volleys.

Endings are the perspective from which all history is written. Those that triumph – have and always will set the narrative. The final score becomes the point from which the story is told. Any previous events that do not fit that mould are either bent into shape or discarded altogether. Spain were moments away from going into their encounter with the Netherlands in Salvador. David Silva probably should have doubled that lead moments before Daley Blind's cross field ball and Van Persie's incredible leap. Five-one doesn't care about all that. The result will even gloss over the epic nature of the goal which ultimately turned the tide. Five-one remains unmoved.

As languages go, binary does not have the capacity to convey Coutinho's goal against Manchester City. It was a feeling that can barely be quantified into words, let alone digits. There was something very Shakespearian about last year. Old Bill at his uppermost grandiose. Often baffling, defying all convention and eventually turning to tragedy. To address it simply in ones and twos would be to ignore what joy there remains in football.

Only one team can ultimately be crowned Champions of England and just because Liverpool slipped on their way to the throne does not invalidate everything that went before it. A sequence of incredible adventures that stir the heart, not a series of complex equations that tax the mind. Last season wasn't about an upward gradient. It was poetry in motion.

(H) West Ham - Pre Match Thoughts

Premier League

                                             Sunday 7th April 2013
                                                Anfield

                                  Liverpool VS West Ham

Another Sunday afternoon kick off, another encounter with a team that plays in claret and blue.  Following up on victory over Aston Villa last week, this one doesn't have quite the same edge.  For starters there is no need to look for any immediate redemption in that Villa may have beaten us at Anfield but our record against the Hammers makes much more pleasant reading.  Secondly, with the fact that they're perched in a relatively safe midtable slot there is no real danger of them coming to Anfield desperate for a point.  That's not to say they won't make it hard for us.  We only have to look to their manager for proof of that.

It would take a miracle or some other unforseen sign of the apocalypse, but I sense that we'll have a lot of the ball this afternoon.  Allardyce's men tend to take a hot potato approach to the game of football and if any of them hold onto it any period of time it will inevitably be followed by a demand to kick it high and long.  The middle of the park will need to be claimed as quickly as possible and I would be shocked if Henderson wasn't included to assist with that.  We saw in the game at Upton Park earlier on in the season how they can over run us if we back off, Diame in particular was spectacular that day and part of the reason why we got back into it was that he was forced off via injury.

More than anything we need to keep West Ham on the back foot as the precise thing they're very good at is our Achilles heel right now.  Defending set plays will be key and Carlton Cole will no doubt be looking to rough up our centre halves much as he did in the reverse fixture.  Hopefully Jamie Carragher's calming influence as of late will limit these moments to an absolute minimum.  Looking out alongside Carra in defence, it could be a good day for Glen Johnson to find some form again.  He was almost on a par with Luis Suarez in terms of effectiveness at one point - and let's be fair, no-one was ever really going to get close to him so that's a compliment in itself - but has cooled off as of late.  Johnson has scored against West Ham in our last three encounters with them.  Hopefully that's a trend which will continue today.

In terms of shape, because we're almost certain to be afforded a lot more space, I'm wondering whether Rodgers will opt to put Sturridge in there and go with the two in midfield.  If that were the case, it would require one of Coutinho or Downing to be benched to work properly - Lucas and Gerrard in a flat midfield could get outmanoeuvred very quickly - and it would be unfortunate if either one had to miss out.  Certainly the temptation would be there to go with the same team that won at Villa Park last week and given that I'm not sure how well Sturridge's injury is coming along then it's tough to gage.  I can certainly see the need for added attacking threat given how they'll sit deep and require a lot of work to break down but would hate to see it come at the expense of our shape in the middle of the park.

The temptation is there to say that with Everton playing Spurs, there are points to be dropped for those above us.  Truth is, that doesn't matter any more.  We simply have to get as many points as possible and whatever wants to align in front of us we will have to accept.  Even though this is likely to be a very attritional game of football and at times very uneasy on the eye - Allardyce will do that to you - I think we're doubly fortunate in that West Ham don't have that much to play for either and Andy Carroll isn't playing.  He would have something to prove and has been in decent form for them as of late.  Joe Cole meanwhile will try to come back and haunt us but I have a feeling this may be just one in a catalogue of limp performances at Anfield for him.  Some games have a lot riding on them or a multitude of angles that at any time could spark the match into life.  This isn't one of them.  Get the points and move on.

(A) Southampton - Pre Match Thoughts

Premier League

                                             Saturday 16th March 2013
                                                St Mary's

                                  Southampton VS Liverpool


Tottenham was the platform. The stepping stone from which we could find our way to having a successful end to the season.  It's a game that could be remembered for years to come if it counts for something at the end of the season.  In that regard we cannot let that effort go to waste today.

Despite the joy and relief last Sunday, we've not really got anything to celebrate as of yet  and with the FA Cup semi final draw placing together Man City and the winner of Man United versus Chelsea, our route back into Europe just got a little bit harder.  At the moment fifth spot is the only guarantee of continental football. So while we're gunning for that, we may as well make a run at fourth.

Of all the teams down in the scrap for survival, Southampton are the one making the least amount of noise. They made their move in swapping Nigel Adkins for Mauricio Pochettino and are now seemingly calm enough to deal with the situation without grand proclamations having to be made about their end of season run in like Aston Villa or QPR.  The former Espanyol manager had and initial boost that saw them beat Manchester City but as of late has seen them only pick up one point in their last three.  It's a perfect collision of a team in great confidence meeting a team looking to find some.  Here's hoping Southampton are still looking at 5pm today.

If he does come back into the squad today, I'm hoping Pepe Reina is in the kind of form he showed in our last away game, although I'd like to hope he's not called upon to make as many saves, in spite of how good they all were.  The make up of the midfield will be interesting to see and with no sense of how Allen or Henderson will be used from here on in, I'd like to hope we get the energy from Jordan but would understand if we went for the same team that dealt with Wigan a fortnight ago under similar circumstances.  Just like in that game I'm really excited to see more from Coutinho. What he has shown so far is very encouraging and the longer he can keep contributing something, the more it will underline just how class he is.  Certainly Pochettino will know all about that, having had him on loan in Spain last year and was also keen on getting him to come to St. Mary's while we were after him.  Thankfully he'll be wearing the Liverbird today.

It's strange to be far less confident in this game than I was last week. I had this sense that it had been far too long since we had beaten Spurs and really felt like the game was ours to win.  Equally, I know that Southampton are desperate for the points and it would be just like us to fall at this hurdle.  We've won three in a row now and this would be a step forward in terms of continuity to get ourselves a fourth.  Today could be the day where we break the shackles of our inconsistency these last few years.  If we stay chained to them, European football will disappear over the horizon very quickly.

(A) Wigan - Pre Match Thoughts

Premier League

                                             Saturday 2nd March 2013
                                               DW Stadium 

                                  Wigan Athletic VS Liverpool

For days we have been stewing. It has been a long wait since the last time we stepped off the picth, having just fallen at the last hurdle against Zenit. It was a mammoth comeback that just fell short. Today Wigan will feel the brunt of that bottled up frustration.

Wigan are a very difficult side to gauge. At times they look dead and buried but towards the end of the season always appear to rise up and pick up enough results that will see them remain in the Premier League for another season. They're hardly the most alluring of teams and will never attract any of the worlds top talent and so the spotting of a talent like Figueroa and before that Valencia & N'Zogbia as well as the nurturing and resurgence of someone like Franco Di Santo, who has gone from a joke figure to a fully capped Argentine international.

In spite of both the location and Dave Whelan - who is probably as loathsome a figure as there is in football - I do have a certain respect for them. Most of that is down to Roberto Martinez, who has proved in a industry filled with faux-loyalty that some people are still capable of sticking with a club that has given them a chance. Also, the style of football with which he has instilled into his team and stubbornly stuck to at times is very admirable. Wigan's perennial survival is primarily down to the nous of their manager and his ability to bring in the right kind of player.

With Daniel Sturridge ruled out, our task has gotten infinitely harder due to the fact that in such a short space of time he has added so much to our attack. I'd certainly like to see Coutinho play but other than that the majority of the side will be the one that came so close to overturning Zenit. Suarez will be once again the focal point but in a game where most of the action will be in the middle third of the park I'm looking for a massive contribution from the midfield. Jordan Henderson will be the one with the impetus to go forward and this could be another important game in terms of his continuing growth as a player.


It sounds unlikely and there are bound to be bumps along the way but from here on in we need perfection. Picking up maximum points from our remaining games is the tallest of orders for a team that has such problems with consistency but at the very least we can give ourselves a chance with victory today. It's not about winning them all but rather winning enough to hang around in the race for Europe while other teams play each other. If a gap opens, the only chance we'll have to take advantage of the points that will inevitably be dropped is if we build up a head of steam. The later we leave it to get going, the more unlikely it will be to effect anything.

(H) West Bromwich Albion - Pre Match Thoughts

Premier League

                                 Monday 11th February 2013

                                               Anfield

                       Liverpool VS West Bromwich Albion


Almost as if by design, all the pieces have been put into place perfectly. We're looking for revenge, following an opening day defeat which started our season on a sour note. Taking part in the very kind of game which we've notoriously had difficulty with in recent times. How typical would it be after the performances against City and Arsenal to let this one slip through our fingers. Now is the time for the team to go on a run. It needs to. We have to.

As far as the cast is concerned, there will be a familiar face in the opposition dugout as Steve Clarke returns to Anfield for the looking to put a halt to his own struggles as well as getting one over on his previous employers. Following an awful run that spanned about two decades during which they didn't even score against us, Albion have enjoyed a decent run of form which included a win at Anfield last season. They're having a horrible time of things lately and could - much as they Hodged us out of the game last year - get everyone behind the ball and hoping to catch us on the break.

Squashing the lower midtable teams has been something we've done very well this season. Our last three at home (Norwich, Sunderland and Fulham) have saw three wins, a total of twelve goals scored and zero conceded. This is something that will need to continue for some time before teams start to be afraid of coming to Anfield again, coupled with our profligacy will always give them hope but if we can get an early goal then that will settle what nerves do remain.

With a heavy duty excursion to Russia in between this and our next game, there is going to be some indication as to who'll be taking part in that one with the team that is selected tonight. As such the temptation to start with Coutinho will be a strong one, especially if Sturridge isn't passed fit. Personally I'd like to see him held back just a little and integrate him into Premier League life slowly. The last twenty or so minutes would be fine, maybe even a little sooner if the game is all wrapped up.

Talk of late has been of consistency, the run of "easier" fixtures and the potential that this team has to go very far.  It's time for all that talking to stop. Now we have to go out on the pitch and do it. Today marks only the beginning. Despite having done so well in recent weeks there is still a massive amount of work we need to do in trying to catch those above us. Failing to do so may see them out of reach for this season. Failure is not an option.

Under The Microscope

People like to think of change as a series of bold – era defining – moments, with virtually nothing in between. In actuality they happen far more gradually over the course of time, by a series of events that may not seem like very much but collectively push things forward. Ultimately it all depends on how and when things come together. Alteration occurs beneath the surface before anything of any real note can happen. After all, the difference between the lead in a pencil and a diamond is simply a matter of arrangement.  In football nobody has everything. No pattern of play will triumph every week and no amount of skill will frequently bail out inferior tactics. Teams that lack natural talent will find a competitive edge any way they can and harness that to it’s fullest potential, just for the sake of having some kind of threat. One way of playing isn't enough for those who want to win consistently. There has to be a variety.

For all that we are undeniably similar, it is the ways in which we are not that make everyone unique and separate the great from the good. They may be tiny or exaggerated but new people bring with them fresh ideas, regardless of how suited or similar they are to what is already established. Differences in personality, even with a common goal in mind, sometimes lead to unexpected consequences. Things can be found that were once lost while new avenues of opportunity may open up.

With all the variations that Liverpool now possess in and around the final third, the problems defensively have highlighted the one thing that is missing in that regard; a physical presence. Sturridge has more of that than he’s been given credit for and in addition to his pace make him a very difficult prospect to handle, not least factoring in the perpetual movement of Suarez and Henderson around him. If there were even a modicum of that in the middle of the park (or should that be Momo-dicum) then the team would be much better balanced. That’s not to say someone – even the aforementioned Sissoko – could or should have been signed based on his strength alone. While it is true that more authority is needed in this aspect, there’s no point putting anyone in there for the sake of it. As with the issue with creativity and the forward line at the end of September after Carroll moved to West Ham and the way that appears to have been addressed, those at the club now what there is a need for and have a period of time between now and the end of the season to locate it.

One strange benefit of the transfers that were recently made is that over the next couple of weeks – pending results it could be more – both Coutinho and Sturridge will have a clear defined role to play in the Premier League. Certainly the burgeoning partnership between Suarez and Sturridge will need as much time as ever to flourish but with the balance between climbing the table and the final chance of a trophy Brendan Rodgers is helped in having his resources split. Whether or not he’ll be fully unleashed on Monday against West Brom, the games against Zenit St Petersburg and how much of a spectacle European nights at Anfield are, he might just slip under the radar.

As with the transfer window having just closed, it is the acquisition of new players into the squad that affect it’s diversity. Players develop and grow within that dynamic but usually at such a pace that teams equally learn to adapt to them as they mature. The new partnerships that then form are usually comprised of players who aren’t alike in terms of their style but their understanding and approach to the game is similar. It’s that which then helps the team, not simply having someone new to try different things with.

Having such diametrically opposed lines of offence can be counter productive. It may not have worked out but the transfer of Andy Carroll and Liverpool is a clear example of trying to dramatically change the way a side is capable of attacking. On a much larger scale, the same could be said of Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s transfer to Barcelona. The theory was simple, add a dimension to the team that they don’t already possess, which is fine but there still needs to be some kind of balance. Regardless of quality, if the main thrust of the attack is so diverse, the supply will be mixed, as will the end result. What you need is something similar and different.

At the time it turned out to be nothing more than scant consolation. A goal – and a route back into a game Liverpool had been second best in for long periods – that saw Daniel Sturridge do something no Liverpool player has shown the ability to do for far too long. He followed up. It may just be coincidence that Gerrard has since then started displaying his talents from long range but maybe the realization that someone will actually be there to pick up the pieces allows him to concentrate on simply hitting the target and as such making it easier for his natural talent to take over.

In terms of the less complex routes to goal (long balls, crosses, long shots) Liverpool have a range of players who are gifted in one area. So much so is the extent to which technique is preferred over physique, you only have to look at set plays, where a number are hung out to the edge of the box for Johnson or Gerrard. In addition to that both Suarez and Sturridge are more than capable of putting one away from distance, Daniel Agger has a powerful shot on him and the hope will be that Henderson’s effort against Norwich wasn’t a one off. Either way, opposition players can ill afford to give them the kind of room in front of the back four. That in turn potentially leaves room in behind. Defenders will quite literally not know which way to turn.

Both individually and collectively, the final part of this season will all come down to reactions. Whether that be reacting to an injury or to the realization that a storied career is coming to an end. Some will have to come back from criticism and possibly even play for their place within the future of the club. The whole team will face be tested with it’s ability to consistently and ruthlessly put away those at the lower end of the table. At the end of the season it may be something completely minuscule that separates Liverpool from where they are from where they want to be. They might even get there by the smallest of margins. Even the most subtle of differences could change everything.

(A) Arsenal - Pre Match Thoughts

Premier League

                                  Wednesday 30th January 2013

                                               The Emirates

                                       Arsenal VS Liverpool

There is no time whatsoever for anyone to dwell on what happened at Oldham as we go to Arsenal for potentially one of the defining fixtures of the season. The next two games are arguably our most difficult and if we can get through them without any real damage then we'll be set up to make a run at the top four. Losing tonight would all but put an end to that.

If nothing else, what should have happened after our FA Cup defeat is that everyone should be completely focused on this game and getting back to winning ways as quickly as possible. There's a tendency to take Arsenal too lightly - especially by me - but the truth is that until we can oust them, they are above us for a reason. Their degree of mental instability might be far and above any of the problems we have right now but that doesn't discount the sheer quality that they have at their disposal. The Gunners are a side as likely to give a game to you as anything else but tonight I don't want us to give them that chance. We must take it from them right at the start.

The signing of Coutinho now complete, albeit far too late for any part in this game - which is a shame, I think it would have been a good one for him to make a late cameo in - we're going to have to go back to what we know works best in order to get something from this game. That means three rather than four attackers and a midfield headed by Jordan Henderson so he is able to get in their faces. This will be a game where space will be at an absolute premium so we cannot allow Arsenal the room that we afforded Manchester United.

Most importantly tonight, I'm really hoping that Rodgers gets it right from the start. Regardless of scoreline, every match we've played away from home against a team above us so far this season it's involved a major shake up at half time. While it's a positive thing that Rodgers has it in him to be bold enough to make those changes, I think tonight we need to be brave enough in our approach so that they aren't necessary.

As is ever the case with a high profile encounter, this one result will change the complexion of Brendan Rodgers and our season thus far. Sometimes that's not entirely fair or accurate but the difference between being potentially four points off fourth and level with Arsenal and being ten with Manchester City still to play on Sunday is huge. I'm expecting a massive reaction from the players after an embarrassing performance against Oldham. Prior to that things were really starting to look up, a team that could seemingly score at will and had bags of potential. I really hope we see that Liverpool tonight.